Ambinder Responds

Marc Ambinder has responded to my concern about early voting and exit polls (I'm "a reader," having sent an link to Ambinder and Sullivan). He claims that early voters will be counted, sort of:

Let's take a state like Florida. The exit poll consortium will conduct a telephonic survey on election day in order to determine the skew of the early vote; they'll use numbers compiled by the secretary of state's office to determine the size, and they'll factor those in when crunching the numbers on election night.

While I agree that early votes can therefore be part of the calculus, this seems a much less exact way to come up with exit poll numbers, which is already an inexact science. I stand by my prediction that the exit polls will therefore be further off than is usually the case. But I appreciate Marc's response.