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The New Panoptiblog
10.22.2008
Ambinder Responds
Marc Ambinder has responded to my concern about early voting and exit polls (I'm "a reader," having sent an link to Ambinder and Sullivan). He claims that early voters will be counted, sort of:
Let's take a state like Florida. The exit poll consortium will conduct a telephonic survey on election day in order to determine the skew of the early vote; they'll use numbers compiled by the secretary of state's office to determine the size, and they'll factor those in when crunching the numbers on election night.While I agree that early votes can therefore be part of the calculus, this seems a much less exact way to come up with exit poll numbers, which is already an inexact science. I stand by my prediction that the exit polls will therefore be further off than is usually the case. But I appreciate Marc's response.
10.21.2008
Early Voting = End of Election Day Exit Polls?
Through Sullivan, I see the Washington Post is reporting that "more than 60 percent of those across the country who have taken advantage of early voting are registered as Democrats." This, despite the fact that registered Democrats make up only a little more than 30% of the electorate, with Republicans a bit below that, with most of the remaining unregistered, Independent, or other party affiliations. [If somebody has better numbers than this on registration, lemme know.]
Set aside whether the 60% number is exactly right for the moment. Suppose that, in early voting, Democrats simply make up a much larger percentage than their share of the electorate overall. This makes sense to me, as those who are excited by the possibility of the first African-American president would want to get out and make sure their votes are counted. Democrats have an advantage in enthusiasm according to just about every poll that has been out there this cycle.
But doesn't this also mean that we're in for a long night on November 5? If Democrats have voted early, they're not around the voting booth on Election Day to be asked by pollsters who they voted for. Therefore, while they would be overrepresented now, when nobody's around to ask them, they'll be underrepresented on 11/5. What might that mean for the kind of election night coverage we've come to expect, when networks "call" the states before the votes have been counted? Remember, when CNN or whoever "calls" a state for one candidate or another, they're not doing it based on counted votes, but on overwhelming exit poll numbers.
A prediction: Just as last cycle saw exit poll numbers favorable enough to John Kerry that websites like Slate showed a smiling Kerry, suggesting that the super-secret-yet-somewhat-leaked poll numbers were putting Kerry ahead of Bush, the exit polls will be way off. All day long, cable news will be teasing that maybe McCain unexpectedly has closed the gap, maybe the Bradley Effect was real, maybe Obama couldn't seal the deal, whatever, because all the exit polls will show McCain's share overrepresented. In the end, we truly won't know until all the actual votes get counted, rather than what will by then be obviously unreliable exit polls.
Bottom line: whether it ends up being close or not, don't expect to know who's president before you go to bed on the night of November 5th (or the morning of the 6th).
Set aside whether the 60% number is exactly right for the moment. Suppose that, in early voting, Democrats simply make up a much larger percentage than their share of the electorate overall. This makes sense to me, as those who are excited by the possibility of the first African-American president would want to get out and make sure their votes are counted. Democrats have an advantage in enthusiasm according to just about every poll that has been out there this cycle.
But doesn't this also mean that we're in for a long night on November 5? If Democrats have voted early, they're not around the voting booth on Election Day to be asked by pollsters who they voted for. Therefore, while they would be overrepresented now, when nobody's around to ask them, they'll be underrepresented on 11/5. What might that mean for the kind of election night coverage we've come to expect, when networks "call" the states before the votes have been counted? Remember, when CNN or whoever "calls" a state for one candidate or another, they're not doing it based on counted votes, but on overwhelming exit poll numbers.
A prediction: Just as last cycle saw exit poll numbers favorable enough to John Kerry that websites like Slate showed a smiling Kerry, suggesting that the super-secret-yet-somewhat-leaked poll numbers were putting Kerry ahead of Bush, the exit polls will be way off. All day long, cable news will be teasing that maybe McCain unexpectedly has closed the gap, maybe the Bradley Effect was real, maybe Obama couldn't seal the deal, whatever, because all the exit polls will show McCain's share overrepresented. In the end, we truly won't know until all the actual votes get counted, rather than what will by then be obviously unreliable exit polls.
Bottom line: whether it ends up being close or not, don't expect to know who's president before you go to bed on the night of November 5th (or the morning of the 6th).
10.20.2008
Monday Night Thoughts
The Broncos are just awful tonight.
The Phillies finally have an opponent for the World Series.
Obama has seemingly consistent leads in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia. Who would've thought it? And is McCain seriously giving up on Colorado but contesting Pennsylvania?
More support for Obama and his positions, from conservatives, here, here, and here (though Luger's is not an endorsement).
Sarah Palin Stat of the Week
SNL Appearances: 1
Press Conferences: 0
The Phillies finally have an opponent for the World Series.
Obama has seemingly consistent leads in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia. Who would've thought it? And is McCain seriously giving up on Colorado but contesting Pennsylvania?
More support for Obama and his positions, from conservatives, here, here, and here (though Luger's is not an endorsement).
Sarah Palin Stat of the Week
SNL Appearances: 1
Press Conferences: 0
10.17.2008
10.15.2008
Pre-Debate Thoughts
Watching these debates has been nerve-racking for me. I can barely stand to actually sit and watch them. But here I'll be, in the computer lab, trying to stream the video (if we don't have customers in the lab). It is, as many have said, McCain's last chance to change the story, but unless he reveals that he has just returned from the mountains of Tora Bora, and personally drags Osama bin Laden onto the stage in handcuffs, I'm not sure what he can do to change perceptions 20 days out.
Obama has to stay calm, having no idea if he's going to be debating the McCain that Palin wants to see, or the McCain that Bloomberg wants to see (though I think I know which one will be more persuasive to undecided voters). Fortunately, he's good at remaining calm.
And I have to say, after reading this, I'm glad I had posted this. Now let's hope it turns out to be a brilliant trap that McCain will walk right into.
I'll try to post about the debate afterwards.
And let's not forget, my Fightin' Phils are one game away from the World Series...
Obama has to stay calm, having no idea if he's going to be debating the McCain that Palin wants to see, or the McCain that Bloomberg wants to see (though I think I know which one will be more persuasive to undecided voters). Fortunately, he's good at remaining calm.
And I have to say, after reading this, I'm glad I had posted this. Now let's hope it turns out to be a brilliant trap that McCain will walk right into.
I'll try to post about the debate afterwards.
And let's not forget, my Fightin' Phils are one game away from the World Series...
10.14.2008
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